From the series European news
As Henry Kissinger wrote in his book Leadership (Penguin, 2022), in the British political system, parties are "rigorously institutionalized": "An electoral victory functions first to empower a party in parliament and, as a consequence of that, to install a new premier". Unlike presidential systems such as the American one, "the British system elevates members of the cabinet to the highest echelons of their party". The prime minister's authority "rests primarily on the maintenance of party discipline" because "the dissent of an influential clique, or the machinations of a single magnetic personality, can limit the premier's ability to pursue desired political objectives".
"In extraordinary circumstances", warns Kissinger, "a cabinet minister's resignation may even threaten the premier's hold on power". It is rare for a British prime minister to be ousted by a parliamentary vote of no confidence, but "less rare is the party leaders up. [...]" "If MPs fear that their party leader is growing personally unpopular, putting them at risk of losing their seats in the next general election, they may attempt to elevate a new one".
This is the situation facing the current British prime minister, Keir Starmer, following defeats in local elections in England and parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales, territories subject to devolution. This defeat was followed by calls for the prime minister to step down and the resignation of his health secretary. In the 2024 election, Labour won 411 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons with 34% of the vote, thanks to the first past the post system. Despite the fact that this large majority will sustain Starmer until the next elections in 2029, for months various figures within the Labour Party, alarmed by their prime minister's deep unpopularity, have been maneuvering to remove him and install a new leader.
Political fragmentation
On May 7, 5,066 councillors were elected across 136 English local authorities, as were six mayors, as well as the 60 members of the Welsh parliament (Senedd) and the 129 members of the Scottish parliament. Labour lost almost 60% of its local councils and 1,498 of the 2,566 seats it had held. In Wales, a historic Labour stronghold, the party fell from first to third place, while in Scotland the damage was limited to sharing second place with Nigel Farage's Reform UK. The other loser in these elections was the Conservative Party, which lost 6 of the 13 local councils it held in England and 563 seats, while in Scotland it is now the fifth largest party, and in Wales the fourth largest. The winners were the national populist Reform UK (1,452 seats in English local authorities), the Greens (now the leading party in 5 of the 32 London boroughs), and the Liberal Democrats. According to political analysis Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, in the English local elections, of all the seats won by Reform UK, 31% were previously held by Labour and 35% by the Tories. In Wales, the centre-left pro-independence party Plaid Cymru came out on top with 45 seats, while Reform UK surged from nowhere to second place with 34 seats. In Scotland too, the leading party is a pro-independence group, the Scottish National Party, while Reform UK secured 17 seats there, as many as Labour.
The two political analysts highlight the geographical correlation between support for Reform UK and the Leave vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum. The idea that the May elections could also be described as an electoral uprising is supported by the fact that the increase in turnout was greatest in the constituencies won by Reform UK. Almost two thirds of the British electorate were eligible to vote; however, not everyone did so. Compared to the last local elections, turnout in Wales stood at 51.6% of registered voters (1.5 percentage points), and at 53% in Scotland (-10 percentage points). As for the English local elections, in the absence of official figures we have taken Rallings and Thrasher's estimate, according to which the overall turnout was approximately 45%, a net increase of nine percentage points. It is clear that abstention remains the leading "party", and these figures also refute Farage's claim that Reform UK has now become "the workers' party" (The Times, May 11). However, there is a section of the electorate that swings between abstention and populist protest parties.
The election result suggests a shift away from the traditional two-party system towards greater fragmentation and a five-party system. Extrapolating these results to the UK level (projected national share), following the methodology of Rallings and Thrasher, gives 27% of the vote to Reform UK, 20% to the Conservatives, 15% to Labour, and 14% each to the Greens and the Lib Dems.
It is striking how similar this dynamic is to the German political cycle. According to the latest poll by the Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) stands at 26%, the coalition of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) at 25%, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) at 12.5%, the Greens at 14%, and Die Linke at 2.6%. In the March State elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, the AfD achieved 18.8% and 19.5% respectively. In both cases, the AfD's share of the vote came primarily from the pool of abstentions, and secondarily from direct defections from the CDU and SPD. The next election is on September 6th in Saxony-Anhalt, where polls put the AfD at above 40%. It is therefore not surprising that the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition government is also under heavy pressure in Germany. In France, in March's local elections, the old centrist parties – the Socialist Party and the Republicans – held their ground, but there too, fragmentation is increasing with the advance of La France Insoumise in some major cities and of the Rassemblement National in small and medium sized towns. The rise to power of a party at odds with the interests of the big bourgeoisie in one of these major European countries would mark a major political watershed; on the other hand, though, Giorgia Meloni's Euro-soluble souverainism in Italy has shown a possible path to rebalancing.
European trajectory
A decade into the start of the new political cycle with the electoral uprising of Brexit, Donald Trump's first term, the French gilets jaunes ("yellow vests"), and the government of adventurers and amateurs formed by the League and the Five Star Movement in Italy – the difficulty faced by the key groups and fractions of capital in finding a mass base for the strategic lines and general interests of the ruling class has not disappeared. In the British case, the imbalance above all takes the form of the intransigence of Farage's party on the issue of relations with the European Union. The strategic line in question has not only become more important because of the crisis in the world order, but also because the centrifugal forces at play in the British political crisis, being strong in the Welsh and Scottish independence parties, also have a European dimension. According to the First Minister of Northern Ireland, a member of the Sinn Féin party, the elections show that "the United Kingdom is fragmenting" and that "people are looking beyond Westminster; they do not want to be part of the failed Brexit Britain". Michelle O'Neill therefore calls for a "referendum on the reunification of Ireland" in 2030, because "we want an end to the division, a united Ireland within Europe" (Corriere della Sera, May 15).
Many establishment commentators in the British press hope that Reform UK will collapse before coming to power; others express the hope for an "Italianisation" of British politics, in which Farage takes Giorgia Meloni as an example, while the former editor of the Financial Times, Lionel Barber, speculates about a future coalition between Reform UK and the Conservatives (La Repubblica, May 13).
The line pursued by the current Starmer government, however, is one of pragmatic rapprochement with the European Union. The negotiations currently underway between London and Brussels are expected to culminate in a summit in July, when will formalise Britain's entry into the European energy market and the removal of customs barriers for agri-food products. To this end, the British government intends to introduce the European Partnership Bill, which will allow for "dynamic alignment" with European regulations. The distinctive feature of this bill is that current and future regulations will be introduced in the UK as secondary legislation, which cannot be amended by the British parliament. As the parliament has no right to amend such acts, they are usually ratified without a formal vote, by virtue of the so-called "Henry VIII powers". These powers take their name from a 1539 law which allowed the monarch to govern by decree.
Although Starmer continues to publicly state his red lines – no to the free movement of people, no to rejoining the customs union, no to rejoining the European single market – it cannot be ruled out, writes The Guardian, that the law could be used to "adopt EU rules on everything" (Aprl 13). The law, argues The Times, will allow Brussels to "effectively alter British law" (January 6). The Financial Times reports that the EU is even calling for a so-called "Europe clause" to be included in the agreement, which would require London to pay substantial compensation should a future government decide to withdraw from it (January 12).
The debt noose
Kissinger noted that, in the British system, "retaining the executive requires all of the leader's fortitude, conviction, mastery of substance, and powers of persuasion". These are qualities not usually attributed to Starmer. However, regardless of Starmer's abilities, any British prime minister will immediately face a difficult economic situation, with inflation above 5%, public debt approaching 100% of GDP, and annual debt servicing costs in the region of around £100 billion. This leaves the government with very little room for manoeuvre.
Liz Truss's brief tenure showed just how quickly bond markets can put an end to reckless government plans. Starmer's challengers will also be under scrutiny from the markets.
THE CONTENDERS
Who will be the Labour leader and prime minister of the UK this autumn? If Keir Starmer is forced to resign, Wes Streeting or Andy Burnham are considered the frontrunners, but it cannot be ruled out that a surprise candidate might emerge from the Labour crisis.
Wes Streeting is seen as a Blairite, positioned on the right wing of the party. Blue Labour, which seeks to maintain fiscal discipline and the current hard line on immigration. He resigned from his post as health secretary to pursue his ambition.
Andy Burnham is the moderate left's candidate and enjoys popularity far beyond the party's rank and file. As mayor of Greater Manchester, he earned the nickname "King of the North" for his defence of the North against directives from London. He is skeptical of the fiscal rules imposed by the Treasury and wants greater devolution of power.
Both are Europeanists, but to varying degrees. On May 16, Streeting stated that "one day" Britain would be "back in the European Union". In September 2025, Burnham had said he hoped that "in my lifetime I see this country rejoin the European Union", but recently, faced with the prospect of competing for the premiership, he has been far more ambivalent.