The Internationalism

Internationalism No. 86, April 2026 Page 12 The third US Gulf War has entered its fourth week. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), was quick to describe it as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market , due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In normal times, 20 million barrels per day (Mb/d) of crude oil and refined products flow through the Strait of Hormuz. 80% of the total flow is destined for Asia, rising to 90% in the case of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Iran claims that the Strait is closed only to its enemies, but, for all practical purposes, the risk of crossing it is such that insurance premiums for oil tankers not explicitly authorised to do so are prohibitively high. With no storage capacity for the extracted crude and hoping to reduce the number of targets, the Gulf States have cut their oil production by at least 10 Mb/d. Acc...

Internationalism No. 86, April 2026 Page 2 The joint attack by Washington and Tel Aviv on Iran, which began on February 28th and was dubbed Operation Epic Fury by the Americans, has been described as an epic gamble by the vast majority of international commentators, starting with the decision to eliminate Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader and a key figure for Shia Islam in Iran and beyond. While Tel Aviv is said to be intent on degrading Iran's military capabilities, and thus weakening it in the long term, what motivates US intervention, even according to Israeli sources, is regime change : something akin to the script followed in Venezuela at the start of the year. However, according to Le Monde , Washington's approach amounts to an exercise in strategic improvisation , owing both to the unilateral decision to attack and to the contradictory series of justifications put forward to l...