The Internationalism

Internationalism No. 88, June 2026 Page 12 In its editorial on May 17th, the Financial Times sounded the alarm over the looming energy crunch . In reality, the alarm has been sounding ever since Iran took full control of the Strait of Hormuz on March 4th, and even more so since the United States, despite the ceasefire of April 8th, imposed its own counter-blockade, with dozens of warships, on April 13th. Negotiations, whether genuine or feigned, Omani mediation, and American threats to finish the job — a campaign stretched on February 28th with the killings of Tehran’s leaders — have prolonged the stalemate in the third American war in the Persian Gulf. The alarm over the looming energy crisis became official on May 13th, when the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its report on the global oil market: More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses...

Internationalism No. 87, May 2026 Page 12 The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the focal point of the Israeli-American war of choice against Iran, represents the fourth global shock in seven years. It is causing disruption across the entire Middle East and has led to an unprecedented dual blockade – by Iran and the US – affecting a fifth of the world's trade in oil and liquefied natural gas, and around a third of global seaborne trade in fertilisers. It also affects refining by-products vital for industrial and mining sectors, including helium (used in semiconductors and optical fibres) and sulphur, for which the Middle East accounts for 45% of global exports. In 2020, the pandemic caused the greatest disruption to supply chains since the Second World War and upended labour-power markets. In 2022, the invasion of Ukraine deprived Europe of Russian gas, created conflicting pressures for the...

Internationalism No. 86, April 2026 Page 12 The third US Gulf War has entered its fourth week. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), was quick to describe it as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market , due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In normal times, 20 million barrels per day (Mb/d) of crude oil and refined products flow through the Strait of Hormuz. 80% of the total flow is destined for Asia, rising to 90% in the case of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Iran claims that the Strait is closed only to its enemies, but, for all practical purposes, the risk of crossing it is such that insurance premiums for oil tankers not explicitly authorised to do so are prohibitively high. With no storage capacity for the extracted crude and hoping to reduce the number of targets, the Gulf States have cut their oil production by at least 10 Mb/d. Acc...

Internationalism No. 77, July 2025 Page 13 Estimates by international institutions for April to June confirm the slowdown in global output and trade. The World Bank forecasts a decline in GDP growth from 2.8% in 2024, to 2.3% in 2025, and a sharp fall in trade from 3.4% to 1.8%. The main cause of the new slowdown is the tariff war declared by Donald Trump, who has so far imposed a universal minimum tariff of 10%. The uncertainty arising from his peculiar art of the deal , consisting of lunges, postponements, relaunches, U-turns, and pauses, makes the policy of the world's leading power unpredictable. It is also paying the highest price, with US growth halving, from 2.8% to 1.4%. The Eurozone has been floating at a rate of less than 1% since 2023 and, according to the World Bank, will remain below this level in 2025 and 2026, while the OECD and the ECB predict a return to 1% in 2025. Chin...