From the series News from the Silk Road
Zheng Yongnian, a senior political analyst at the Chinese University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen, and a figure to whom the Politburo lends an ear, reflects on the unexpected consequences of the American attack on Iran. The backdrop of the attack is the erosion of the framework established by the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but the catalyst for the crisis is the transformation of the United States from a nuclear guarantor into a destructive
factor in the world order. According to Zheng, it is foreseeable that the United States’ attack on Iran’s three nuclear plants will inevitably lead to a new wave of nuclear proliferation all over the world
.
The NPT framework was the expression of the five postwar powers legitimately armed
with nuclear bombs: the US, the USSR, China, France, and the UK. Four countries which did not sign the treaty represent the exception: Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea. We are dealing here with what we have defined as the real NPT, the one which expresses the struggles between the powers, rather than the literal version of the treaty. Zheng sees the dynamic of proliferation from the viewpoint of the consolidated powers. Their geopolitical controversies have provided a ‘legitimate’ motivation for exporting technology undercover. For example, to help Delhi face off Beijing, the United States exported nuclear technology to India via various channels
. There has therefore been a kind of protected
proliferation on the part of the great nuclear powers, in the course of their reciprocal struggles. Zheng also comments on the practice of proxy wars between nuclear powers
, and between a nuclear and a non-nuclear power, i.e., a conventional war waged under the threat of nuclear war
, such as the one between Russia and Ukraine. These wars, in addition to the attack on Iran, lead to many second thoughts
among the world’s capitals and effectively reopen the question of proliferation.
Pandora’s nuclear box
The crisis of the nuclear order is linked to the crisis of the postwar order by the ongoing strategic transformation of the leading power, since the provision of the American nuclear umbrella was an important part of that order
. We observe that this umbrella formed part of the real NPT, but that it was called into doubt by Washington itself. Zheng quotes a speech by Vice President J.D. Vance at the Annapolis Naval Academy, Maryland, as a systematic exposition of the Trump Doctrine
. He argues that the United States will be more cautious in the use of military force in the future, in order to avoid being involved in forever wars, and that Washington will return to a realist strategy, based strictly on key interests.
Vance criticised previous administrations but admitted – Zheng observes – that the era of the United States’ undisputed dominance is over
: America did not pay attention to, nor prepared itself for, the emergence of great evenly matched competitors. Today, however, its armed forces must accept this reality; the United States will shift its attention to its domestic market, above all in order to maintain its technological advantage, and, if anything, will face external threats with discipline
, waging war with very clear aims
only when necessary, striking with force and decision
so as to withdraw its troops right away
. The so-called ‘Trump doctrine’
– Vance clarifies in another speech – is actually very simple
. Zheng comments that the essence of this transformation is its destructiveness
: both the threat of the use of force on the part of the leading nuclear power at any moment and anywhere
and doubts about the coverage of the American umbrella, subject to this restrictive revision of its interests, trigger a twofold dynamic of proliferation. On the one hand, all the countries in the world will have to reassess whether having nuclear weapons is necessary for their survival
; on the other, its allies will have to decide whether to develop the nuclear bomb autonomously
. This is being seriously taken into consideration in [...] South Korea, Japan, Poland, Germany, and Turkey
.
Wang Wen’s “great contention”
Zheng’s intervention is part of the Chinese debate about the dangers of American decline, a superpower intrinsically unstable due to a combination of its strengths and weaknesses. It was Zhang Weiwei, of Shanghai’s Fudan University, who warned of its destructiveness
. An essay by Wang Wen, of the Chongyang Institute – whose motto is vast horizons and a clear view
– lends itself to reflection, advocating a line for China’s calculated strategic rise.
Wang returns to the debate on the great contention
, launched in 2023 by Jin Canrong at Beijing’s Renmin University. The debate emphasised the epochal change inherent in the emergence of the Asian Giants estranged from the Western order, and the acceleration brought about by China in power relationships. According to Wang, the great contention is characterised by a series of local wars, from Kiev to the Middle East and Africa, and as far as Myanmar; global military spending is increasing drastically
, but it is above all the instability of America’s decline that is acting as an accelerator. The United States has transformed itself from guarantor to disruptor of the world order, actually increasing its interventionism in regional conflicts in order to shore up its own hegemony
, or at least to retain an advantage in the world balance.
The impossible low profile
According to Wang, in this new era of great contention
the Dragon can no longer keep its low profile
; it must maintain a basic attitude of keeping away from controversies
, but it must also look for the opportunities hidden among the risks
of the new phase. A gradual competition is underway with the United States, in which achieving continuous gains via the winning over of ‘friends’ and limiting losses by reducing the number of ‘enemies’
is similar to the Chinese game of Go. In its trade, technological, ideological, and financial battles
with the United States, Beijing must stick to its guns, without letting itself be intimidated; this serves to set the pace
for competition, but also for its relations with the other powers. China must avoid involvement in too many alliances, but also avoid excessive distance from any country
, including the United States, with which, in any case, he advocates general cooperation
. The Silk Road cultivates
foreign markets and international relations. The Dragon must be able to dissuade its enemies militarily, but it must be able to use multilateralism as well
.
Wang coins the tactic of preventive diplomacy
, a counterpoint to America’s preventive war. This means widening the channels with different local military forces
, so as to have the advantage in case of the outbreak of unexpected crises; one need only think of China’s relations with Yemen’s Houthis, which allowed the passage of Chinese ships in the Red Sea in 2023.
Selective projection and undisciplined withdrawal
This Chinese tactic would aim, at least initially, to infiltrate the order instead of overthrowing it. China is sticking to moderate preparation for war
, with sufficient rearmament, but in keeping with its size and the expansion of Chinese interests abroad
. In this manner, moderation would consist of limiting its projection primarily
to the trade and energy routes which are vital to the economy of Asian capitalism.
A text by Zhou Bo, a former soldier now at the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) of Tsinghua University, also characterises American decline as the primary cause of global tensions. Zhou quips that an over-confident America is dangerous, but that a less confident America would probably be even more so. In Should the World Fear China? [2025], the former colonel challenges American decline to be as peaceful
as China’s rise.
The same text explains that the Dragon’s military projection is limited
to the protection of its foreign interests: 7 trillion dollars’ worth of foreign assets
are impossible to defend militarily as a whole, but a military presence helps
. China still has insufficient military capacities; its foreign involvement will therefore be selective
, but incremental
and therefore irreversible
. The measured commitment of the rising power is a mirror image of that of the declining power, forced to be disciplined with its foreign interventions in order to avoid becoming bogged down, according to the Trump Doctrine illustrated by Vance. Competition with China, Zhou warns, will be much longer than the war in Afghanistan, which Trump considers a forever war
. The confidence of the challenger – which has time on its side – is palpable, but both Wang and Zhou remain cautious.
Informed and armed moderation
China must not fill in the empty spaces
left by the United States, since these become traps
, above all in the Middle East. Precisely because of its growing economic influence in the world, the Dragon does not need costly, hard-to-maintain spheres of influence
. Wang limits himself to envisaging military cooperation along the Silk Road. Zhou is more precise in listing the defence policies modified by Beijing in the last few years, which have allowed it to deploy troops, establish bases abroad, and carry out exercises with other countries. Still in force is the tactic of military projection aimed at avoiding any direct encounter or clash with the United States, given the not insignificant power gap between them, if one were to venture into the deeper waters of the great contention
.
According to Colonel Zhou Bo, China will be preponderant in the West Pacific. In the opinion of the analyst Wang Wen, China is at the forefront of regional studies
, the effect of the global awareness of an emerging power
. This is a competitive field in which Beijing willingly challenges America’s quantitative concepts, but in which it also studies the heritage of Europe’s long colonial experience. This is not enough to conquer the world, but, once again, it helps. In fact, Beijing is rearming on many fronts in its confrontation with Washington.
The white paper on National Security in the ‘New Era’
states that development and security are like the two wings of a single body
and stresses the guaranteeing of industrial supply chains in the case of war. It is the quality and quantity of manufacturing in the economy which characterises rearmament.