Skip to main content

Seas, Skies, and Space in European Deterrence

From the series European news

In our analysis, we have considered how the most likely path to EU rearmament could be through the creation of a European pillar within NATO. Rather than a common deterrence signifying the supreme affirmation of the sovereignty of a continental State, it would probably involve the sharing of State sovereignty at European level, in the form of nuclear sharing. This assessment is confirmed by a significant French source.

Nuclear backing

In an October report by the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), Emmanuelle Maître and Etienne Marcuz elaborate on the concrete prospects for cooperation between States to achieve European-scale deterrence. Together with the British system, they write, French nuclear deterrence forms the foundation of a true European pillar within NATO. The creation of a Franco-British Nuclear Steering Group with the Northwood Declaration of July 10th signals a change in France's conception of nuclear deterrence, though without calling into question its autonomy or sovereignty. The political decision to open discussions on the role of French nuclear deterrence within the European defence architecture creates opportunities for cooperation [...] that could benefit not only European allies but also France itself.

Inspired by cooperation between NATO member States on nuclear missions, France has recognised that the concept of épaulement (backing) increases the credibility of deterrence. All European NATO countries, and especially those involved in nuclear sharing (Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands), also provide non-nuclear capabilities in support of missions: escort fighters, tanker aircraft, radar aircraft, and the suppression of enemy air defences. Similarly, other European countries could provide support to the French Strategic Air Forces. The authors recall how President Emmanuel Macron, in a speech at the École de Guerre in 2020, invited European partners to observe French Strategic Air Force exercises, and how an Italian tanker aircraft directly participated in them.

France's readiness to engage was then formalised in the July 2025 issue of the Revue nationale stratégique. The credibility of the European dimension of deterrence can be further strengthened, the authors write, by allowing the French Strategic Armed Forces to be deployed at air bases in allied territories. This is reminiscent of the proposal by Jean-Dominique Merchet of the French newspaper L'Opinion, which we reported in our newspaper [The Crisis in the World Order Starts Up the Deterrence Race Again, Internationalism, May 2024]. According to FRS experts, such backing could also strengthen the naval component of French and British deterrence. European partners could provide submarines, ships, and maritime patrol aircraft to detect and, if necessary, counter threats to Paris and London's ballistic missile submarines. These solutions could be implemented quickly and at almost no cost.

Armed lessons

Regarding the future potential for cooperation on European deterrence, the FRS document seeks to take into account the lessons of recent armed conflicts. In the war in Ukraine, Russia has demonstrated the effectiveness of its arsenal of deep-strike missiles, which are mostly dual-capable, i.e., capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. On the other hand, Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory — including the one against the Engels air base, which houses Russian strategic bombers, and the one against the Armavir radar station, also linked to Russian deterrence — did not provoke a nuclear response. This highlights the vulnerability of such systems to sub-threshold attacks.

As for the recent twelve-day war between Israel and Iran, it demonstrated how a regional missile defence system can counter massive ballistic attacks, while deep strikes [...] gave the Israeli air force virtually full freedom of action over enemy territory. Recent technological advances in long-range precision weapons and AI-assisted terminal guidance now allow conventional weapons to engage a wide range of targets that once required tactical nuclear weapons. This highlights the strategic importance of expanding European cooperation on high-precision long-range conventional weapons, along the lines of the current European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) project, which would function as a deterrent in itself and further strengthen French and British nuclear deterrence.

Eye and shield

In addition, the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), launched by Germany in 2022, could form the basis for a future sovereign shield against conventional strategic strikes. It is no coincidence that these are the three elements of the strategic concept on which Macron had called for a round table in 2024: missile defence, long-range weapons, and nuclear devices [Berlin and Paris Negotiate on European Deterrence, Internationalism, June 2024].

Contributing to the strategic concept of European deterrence, therefore, does not necessarily mean only participating in or co-financing a French or British nuclear programme; it can include backing French strategic forces, protecting French and British ballistic missile submarines, developing long-range conventional missiles — with dual capability or not — or contributing to a missile shield. All these elements must be integrated with each other, the FRS report emphasises: The operational credibility of a European pillar within the Atlantic Alliance, combining both conventional and nuclear capabilities, would require deeper integration and the establishment of sovereign command, control, and intelligence structures, which are currently provided primarily by the United States. Allowing the shared use of satellites belonging to various European nations would strengthen the ability to monitor areas of strategic interest. The Odin's Eye programme, a European early missile warning system involving thirteen nations, will provide a space-based capability for detecting ballistic, hypersonic, and anti-satellite threats.

Is European deterrence therefore within reach? The reality is not so simple. Germany's massive rearmament is beginning to shake the European balance and create tensions. In 2029, Berlin will invest €153 billion in defence, while Paris hopes to reach €80 billion in 2030. Added to this is competition for procurements between the big defence industry groups. To mention just one example among many, OHB, the Bremen-based group at the head of the European consortium building Odin's Eye, has criticised the attempt formalised on October 23rd by Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales to merge their activities to form a major European player in satellite construction.

Tensions in Berlin

Meanwhile Rheinmetall, the German giant in the production of cannons and tanks, hopes to open the door to the space sector by securing a contract worth at least €3 billion for a constellation of radar satellites for the German armed forces, thanks to its 60% stake in the joint venture with Finnish satellite manufacturer Iceye [Handelsblatt, October 24th]. On the other hand, Le Monde reports the concerns of the French space industry about German ambitions, which are supported by a revolution in Berlin's military funding. On September 25th, the German defence minister announced that Germany will spend €35 billion by 2030, an average of €7 billion per year, on launchers and satellites. This figure is comparable to the current annual budget of the entire European Space Agency. Paris, politically and financially weakened, does not have the capacity to follow; at the moment, power is in the hands of the biggest customer [October 23rd]. These are clashes which will mark the coming years of European rearmament.

Lotta Comunista, November 2025

Labels:

Popular posts in the last week

The EU Commission Plans for Rearmament and a Clean Industrial Deal

Internationalism No. 71, January 2025 Page 2 From the series European news Following the European elections which took place on June 6th - 9th, the leaders of the Member States met on June 27th at the European Council. Ursula von der Leyen was nominated as president of the next European Commission, after she was chosen as the European People’s Party’s (EPP) Spitzenkandidat (“leading candidate”). The agreement also included the election of former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa as president of the European Council, and the appointment of former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Subsequently, on July 18th, Parliament elected von der Leyen as president of the Commission by an absolute majority, with 401 votes out of 719 MEPs. On September 17th, von der Leyen presented her team of commissioners to the European Parliament and, two days later, the Council adopted this list of...
Read more

Lotta Comunista: The Origins 1943-1952

Guido La Barbera Contents 9. Preface to the English Edition 13. Preface 19. Useful dates 21. Chapter One «ONE OUGHT TO KNOW WITH WHOM ONE IS DEALING» 25. The balance-of-power theory 27. Theory and the ‘strategy-party’ 29. Chapter Two THE FOUNDRY AND THE PARTISAN STRUGGLE 31. The Savona group 39. Passion disciplined by reason 40. Never again a tool in the hands of others 41. The Genoa group 46. The Sestri Ponente group 48. The groups in Rome and Tuscany 52. The strength of GAAP: ‘only a handful’ 55. Chapter Three LIBERTARIAN COMMUNISM: A DIFFERENT KIND OF COMMUNISM 58. Reckoning with Bordiga...
Read more

“Polish Moment” at Risk

Internationalism No. 78-79, August-September 2025 Page 3 From the series European news In July, the strategic triangle of London-Paris-Berlin was strengthened with the Northwood Declaration, in which the United Kingdom and France signalled the possibility of coordinating the use of their nuclear weapons through the creation of a “Nuclear Steering Group”, and with the Kensington Treaty, an Anglo-German defence pact. These agreements complement the Franco-British agreements of Lancaster House and the Franco-German Treaty of Aachen. Although Poland signed the Treaty of Nancy with France in May 2025, it was excluded from the recent “E3” consultations, in which only the United Kingdom, France, and Germany participated. Nevertheless, the establishment of the new government led by Donald Tusk, the Civic Platform (PO) leader, in the October 2023 elections, after eight years of anta...
Read more

Battle Over Times for European Rearmament

Internationalism No. 78-79, August-September 2025 Pages 1 and 2 In current Anglo-Saxon vocabulary, appeasement stands for cowardly and illusory pacification, as exemplified by the Munich Agreement of 1938, which conceded to the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia without stopping the march towards world war. Were Shigeru Ishiba, Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz really, as has been said, the Neville Chamberlains of the tariff war, accepting appeasement on the 15% tariff in an ignominious surrender to Donald Trump's blackmail? And has Trump really revealed himself in Anchorage, Alaska, to be an appeaser towards Vladimir Putin? Was it, finally, only the firmness of the Europeans at the Washington summit which convinced Trump to remain as one of the guarantors of Ukraine's security? The plague of television and social media diplomacy feeds on simplistic and propa...
Read more

The Four Petrochemical Giants

Internationalism No. 86, April 2026 Page 15 From the series Major industrial groups in China When the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949, oil extraction in the country was practically non-existent, and the country was completely dependent on imports. The exploration and development of domestic oil resources required a major effort. As Jin Zhang reports in his book Catch-up and Competitiveness in China [Routledge, 2004]: The required massive human resources were supplied by the People's Liberation Army (PLA). In 1952, Mao Zedong ordered the reorganisation of the 57 th Division of the 19 th Army of the PLA into the 1 st Division of Oil . The effort led to the discovery of several oil fields, the most significant of which was in Daqing, Heilongjiang Province, in northeastern China, in 1959. It became operational the following year, reaching a ...
Read more

Variations and Gradations of Democracy in China

Internationalism No. 50, April 2023 Page 10 From the series Giats of Asia : the dillemas of Chinese single-party pluralism Only the materialist analysis of the intraction between structure and superstructure can explain the variety of the political forms. Why did the entrenchment of the capitalist mode of production in China occur in populist and Maoist forms? Why does Chinese imperialism express itself in CP single-party pluralism and not, for example, in the classical multi-party system of imperialist democracy? This specific political analysis does not regard the study of the economic causes which determine China’s political struggles, a scientific investigation which is its premise, “but the way” in which these struggles present themselves in the superstructure. “By analysing basic economic facts, Marxism can identify at first the interests which find expression in the political struggle. The form in which these interests appear politically, however, is a qu...
Read more

The Party and the Unprecedented crisis in the World Order: A Crucial Decade

This first quarter-century has seen an epochal turning point in inter-power relations, triggered by China's very rapid imperialist development. Arrigo Cervetto recognised this process from the very early 1990s: Today history has sped up its pace to an unpredictable extent. [...] Analysis of the sixteenth century, as the century of accelerations and rift in world history, is a model for our Marxist vision ( La mezza guerra nel Golfo [The Half War in the Persian Gulf], January 1991). The course of imperialism was speeding up, and China's very rapid rise was opening up a new strategic phase with the new century. The United States, the leading power in the world, is being challenged by an antagonist with comparable economic strength which, moreover, openly states that it wants to provide itself with a "world class" military force within the next decade. Favoured by the 2008 global crisis and also by the pandemic crisis, China has forged ahead with its rapid rise for ...
Read more

Armed Negotiations between the Gulf and the Mediterranean

David Petraeus, Commander of the US forces in Iraq and the Gulf in 2007-2008, then director of the CIA in 2011-12, described the elimination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on January 3 rd in Baghdad as a defensive action , with which the Trump presidency restored a US deterrence , which was weakened by recent Iranian actions . This is a reference to the attacks conducted indirectly, unclaimed by Tehran, against the Saudi oil infrastructures on September 14 th 2019. In March 2008, when the forces under Petraeus’ command supported the Iraqi Army in the fight against local Shite militias, Soleimani sent a message to the American general: informing him that he was the person in charge for Iranian policies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza therefore the channel through which to define an agreement to resolve the various issues with Tehran. Petraeus holds the advisors of the Quds Force, the spearhead of the Pasdaran asymmetric operations, responsible for the killing of around 600 ...
Read more

European Rearmament and Nuclear Directorate

Internationalism No. 78-79, August-September 2025 Page 4 The quantity and quality of the contradictions accumulated by the crisis in the world order are fertile ground for the unprecedented attempt of European Leninism. Two passages by Arrigo Cervetto, in the Quaderni ( Notebooks ) of 1981-82 and in The Difficult Question of Times , are a compass for dealing with every aspect of uneven development, both in terms of the struggle between classes and the clash between powers in the system of States. Cervetto writes in his Quaderni that the battle to establish the Bolshevik model of party in Italy in the 1960s was based on the analysis of capitalist development. Thanks to Lenin, I could finally see the development of capitalism in Italy as a molecular process. [...] This process would create such and so many contradictions that it would allow a group, which was able to analy...
Read more

Euro-solubility

Before capsules and pods, there was freeze-dried instant coffee powder, which of course tasted nothing like a real espresso. Now: for some time we have been following the vicissitudes of sovereigntists and populists with the idea that their political future depended on their Euro-solubility . Referring to the law-and-order, xenophobic and immigrant-hostile traits that have become common currency in European debates, we wrote that a Europe that protects could use the anti-immigration rhetoric of the sovereigntists to keep them on the leash of the pro-European strategic consensus. No sooner said that done. In Italy, as in France and other European countries, that phenomenon is in full swing. In Italy, the Five Star Movement has already embarked on its path to conversion a year and a half ago, entrusted with no less than the direction of Italian diplomacy. And even the Lega, believe it or not, has become a pro-European party overnight. In France, a similar process has seized Marine Le P...
Read more