Skip to main content

Forward Deterrence for European Imperialism

From the series European news

The next half-century will be the age of nuclear weapons. This was the grim prediction with which Emmanuel Macron concluded his speech on nuclear deterrence, delivered on March 2nd at the Île Longue submarine base. Standing before Le Téméraire, the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine that carries a strike force equivalent to the sum of all the bombs dropped on Europe during the Second World War, the president announced a significant evolution in French nuclear doctrine.

The emergence of new threats and the realignment of American priorities make it necessary, according to Macron, not only to strengthen deterrence by increasing the number of nuclear warheads, but also to rethink the deterrence strategy deep inside the European continent. His proposal is the gradual implementation of forward deterrence, which will initially offer the possibility for partners to participate in deterrence exercises and could lead to the deployment, if necessary, of elements of strategic forces with our allies. Macron is not proposing the permanent stationing of French nuclear weapons in third countries, as the United States does with its extended deterrence; he is referring to the possibility of a temporary presence of French fighter jets equipped with nuclear weapons in other European countries. Furthermore, there will be no sharing of the final decision on the use of nuclear weapons, which will remain exclusively in the hands of the President of the French Republic. Forward deterrence, Macron emphasised, is a distinct commitment that has its own intrinsic value and is perfectly complementary to that of NATO.

“Épaulement”

Macron explained that a strategic dialogue has already been initiated with the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark, although discussions are also underway with several other countries. He also confirmed the rejection of the flexible nuclear response in French doctrine. France no longer possesses small nuclear bombs, known as tactical bombs, and rejects the idea of a nuclear war. It possesses only strategic nuclear weapons, capable of inflicting such damage as to prevent any adversary or group of adversaries from recovering. French doctrine rules out a gradual escalation through a nuclear exchange, and provides only for a single, non-repeatable nuclear warning, as a last chance to restore deterrence. It is precisely this absence of tactical nuclear weapons in the French arsenal that has prompted some voices in Germany, Denmark, Sweden, and Poland to call for their development, either at national level or through cooperation between the Nordic countries and Germany. For the time being, these voices remain in the minority.

To manage sub-threshold escalation, the French president sees an opportunity in conventional contributions from other European countries, in what he has described as mutual support or épaulement. Europe, Macron stated, would benefit from this.

France does not formally offer any sharing of responsibility for the decision to use its nuclear weapons. However, the concept of deterrence as a two-pillar system (nuclear and conventional), with reciprocal mutual support constituting a fair distribution of efforts, indicates an offer of cooperation. Le Monde [March 4th] sees this as potentially the basis for a European defence contract based on burden-sharing. For Bruno Tertrais, a French specialist in the field, Macron's speech clarified the architecture of European nuclear deterrence: French and allied conventional resources on the front line, and at the rear, the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines of France and the United Kingdom which guarantee the ultimate security of the continent in accordance with the Northwood Declaration [Le Point, March 6th].

This would appear to be the definition of the strategic concept integrating nuclear deterrence, missile defence, and deep strikes that Macron referred to two years ago in the pages of The Economist. If we also consider Macron's 2020 speech at the École de Guerre, in which he called for a dialogue on the European dimension of French deterrence, we have a rough indication of the reaction times of European imperialism in the crisis in the world order.

The “E3” nuclear steering group

With the Northwood Declaration of July 2025, the United Kingdom and France opened up the possibility of coordinating their respective deterrents, in particular through the creation of a Franco-British nuclear steering group. In his speech, Macron recalled that in December senior British officials took part, for the first time since the establishment of our deterrent, in one of our strategic air force exercises. The president also announced plans to establish forums for exchange with all countries interested in forward deterrence, modelled on what we have done with the UK.

Indeed, on the very day of Macron's speech, the French president and the German chancellor issued a joint statement announcing the creation by their two countries of a high-level nuclear steering group. The statement refers to Article 4 of the Aachen Treaty: the two States are convinced of the inseparable nature of their security interests, and shall provide mutual aid and assistance by all means at their disposal, including military force, in the event of armed aggression against their territories. Signed in 2019 by Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel, the Aachen Treaty is regarded as a confirmation and strengthening of the Élysée Treaty, signed in 1963 by Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer.

Both the March 2nd joint statement by Merz and Macron and the Aachen Treaty set out the Franco-German commitments within the framework of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty and Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union. In his speech on February 13th at the Munich Security Conference, Friedrich Merz referred to Article 42(7), the Union's mutual defence clause, and called for clarification on how we intend to organise it in Europe, not as a substitute for NATO, but as a solid and autonomous pillar within the alliance. While remaining in keeping with the ambiguity inherent to the subject, the statement by Merz and Macron represents a step forward towards integrating the nuclear dimension into this EU mutual defence clause.

The nuclear update to the Aachen Treaty, with the Franco-German agreement of March 2nd, also completes a triangle whose other two sides are formed by the Kensington Treaty, signed in July 2025 by the United Kingdom and Germany, and the Northwood Declaration between France and the United Kingdom signed in the same month. In his speech on February 14th in Munich, the British prime minister noted that for decades, the UK has been the only nuclear power in Europe to have committed its deterrent to protecting all NATO members. However, Keir Starmer warned that, following the strengthening of nuclear cooperation with France through the Northwood Declaration, any adversary must know that in the event of a crisis, they could find themselves facing our combined force. Together, do France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — sometimes referred to as the E3 countries — effectively form a sort of nuclear directorate? Could this be the embryonic form of a European Security Council?

Atlantic reflections

In fact, the French proposal for forward deterrence does not envisage the creation of a European body, but rather the development of a network of bilateral entities. According to Claudia Major, vice-president of the German Marshall Fund, a think tank, the rationale behind this choice lies in the fact that a supranational body such as a European Security Council would risk competing with NATO [Le Monde, March 4th]. Indeed, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported that German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, like the predecessors of the current Chancellor Merz, had in the past opposed the French proposal on nuclear deterrence. His primary concern was an American reaction and possible repercussions for the nuclear umbrella provided by Washington within NATO. In providing such protection, the implicit aim of the United States has always been to prevent nuclear proliferation, particularly in Germany, and to avoid the emergence of an autonomous European power. Thus, following the signing of the Élysée Treaty in 1963, the American reaction to Franco-German rapprochement took the form of the Year of the Atlanticists, and pressure was exerted on the Bonn parliament to compel Chancellor Adenauer to add a preamble to the treaty emphasising the partnership with the United States.

The FAZ praised Merz for having seized the opportunity for nuclear cooperation with France, as it believes that Macron's proposal lays the foundations for a European nuclear deterrent, independent of the United States and complementary to it. The conservative Frankfurt daily makes a bold claim: Sixty-three years after the signing of the Élysée Treaty, Chancellor Merz has quietly freed himself from the constraints of the preamble [March 6th].

The last time Europe was on the verge of taking a step forward on common defence was at the turn of the century, following the Balkan wars. This attempt was thwarted by the US-led war in Iraq, which Washington used to divide the New Europe of the East from the Old Europe of the Rhine axis. It will come as no surprise if European imperialism, which has been rearming since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and is now moving towards deterrence, faces a reaction from other powers. According to Military Balance, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Europe's share of global defence spending has risen from 17% in 2022 to 21% in 2025, with a quarter of the increase attributable to Germany. Within three years, Berlin will increase its current military spending by a further 50%, becoming the country with by far the largest military budget in Europe. The disruption of previous continental balances, brought about by German rearmament, remains one of the principal uncertainties of European rearmament.

Translated from the original work by , published in Lotta Comunista, , p. 5.

Labels:

Popular posts in the last week

China’s Electromechanical Champions

Internationalism No. 85, March 2026 Page 9 From the series Major industrial groups in China Analysing the WTO data for 2023, it emerges that China exported goods worth $3,379 billion, surpassing the European Union and the United States. Industrial machinery accounted for over 7% of exports and electrical machinery 9%. In the same sectors, Chinese imports did not reach 40% of the value of exports, indicating that these are among the pillars of Beijing’s export economy. Sany Heavy Industry In this newspaper we have already examined the Chinese mechanical engineering giant Sinomach. But in the field of machine construction, Sany Heavy Industry also holds a prominent position, particularly in excavators, cranes, industrial elevators, and cement machinery. The company, based in Changsha (Hunan) since 1991, was founded by Liang Wengen, who had previously been an executive at a State-owned arms factory, and is its main shareholder. Sany had a 2023 turnover...
Read more

The EU Commission Plans for Rearmament and a Clean Industrial Deal

Internationalism No. 71, January 2025 Page 2 From the series European news Following the European elections which took place on June 6th - 9th, the leaders of the Member States met on June 27th at the European Council. Ursula von der Leyen was nominated as president of the next European Commission, after she was chosen as the European People’s Party’s (EPP) Spitzenkandidat (“leading candidate”). The agreement also included the election of former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa as president of the European Council, and the appointment of former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Subsequently, on July 18th, Parliament elected von der Leyen as president of the Commission by an absolute majority, with 401 votes out of 719 MEPs. On September 17th, von der Leyen presented her team of commissioners to the European Parliament and, two days later, the Council adopted this list of...
Read more

The Munich Soviet Republic

Internationalism No. 87, May 2026 Page 9 From the series Pages from the history of the workers' movement The Munich Soviet Republic With the Munich Soviet Republic, the German Revolution, which began on November 9 th , 1918, seemed to be flickering its last. In the Bavarian capital, after the fall of the Wittelsbachs, power had fallen into the hands of Kurt Eisner, a pacifist intellectual, member of the USPD, and contributor to the revisionist newspaper Münchner Post since 1910. Eisner had managed something unheard of in Germany – to gain the support of the farmers, in particular Karl Gandorfer, head of the Bavarian Peasants' League. Workers, soldiers, and peasants "Traditionally a stronghold of Catholicism and reaction" , Bavaria "had declared early for the November Revolution, largely because its people hated the Prussians and re...
Read more

The Four Petrochemical Giants

Internationalism No. 86, April 2026 Page 15 From the series Major industrial groups in China When the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949, oil extraction in the country was practically non-existent, and the country was completely dependent on imports. The exploration and development of domestic oil resources required a major effort. As Jin Zhang reports in his book Catch-up and Competitiveness in China [Routledge, 2004]: The required massive human resources were supplied by the People's Liberation Army (PLA). In 1952, Mao Zedong ordered the reorganisation of the 57 th Division of the 19 th Army of the PLA into the 1 st Division of Oil . The effort led to the discovery of several oil fields, the most significant of which was in Daqing, Heilongjiang Province, in northeastern China, in 1959. It became operational the following year, reaching a ...
Read more

Innovation Incubators

Internationalism No. 87, May 2026 Page 7 From the series Industry and pharmaceuticals II South San Francisco is considered the birthplace of biotechnology. Here, in 1976, the biochemist Herbert W. Boyer of the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), and the venture capitalist Robert Swanson founded Genentech, commonly considered the first biotech company in the world. Swanson had studied at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), then moved to San Francisco and cultivated a passion for molecular biology. Genetic engineering was about to take off in Californian universities, starting with the pioneering DNA manipulation experiments carried out by Boyer in collaboration with Stanley N. Cohen, a geneticist at Stanford University. At the time, observes Nature , leading scientists proposing involvement with industry was considered heresy . Swanson and Boyer...
Read more

The Court: From Civil Rights to Individual Rights

Internationalism No. 87, May 2026 Page 11 From the series Chronicles of the new American nationalism Edward Lazarus, a clerk for Justice Harry Blackmun at the Supreme Court in 1988–89 and chief of staff at the Federal Communications Commission during Barack Obama's administration, published Closed Chambers in 1998, an account of the work of the Supreme Court under Chief Justice William Rehnquist. Lazarus considers that it is history and geography that have shaped the character of the Court. The author identifies four decisive battles in its history: in 1937, the bitter clash over the powers and economic policy of the New Deal; in 1954, the fierce battle over the civil rights of Black Americans; in 1973, the struggle for individual rights; and in 1974, the ruling that marked the end of Richard Nixon's presidency. Lazarus's supreme regionalism ...
Read more

The Social Brain and Artificial Intelligence

Internationalism No. 87, February 2026 Page 1 From the series Artificial Intelligence There is an anthropological question linked to the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on human consciousness, analogous – though at a higher level – to the effects of online communication and even television. We consider three aspects of this. Physical , concerning changes in the brain’s neural connections as a social product. Functional , concerning capacities that are stunted or developed by the internet and the use of artificial intelligence. Epistemological , concerning the implications for the theory of knowledge and the very notion of an objectively defined principle of reality . The Church, as it has already done with biotechnologies capable of intervening in human DNA, is developing its own reflection on artificial intelligence and its anthropological impli...
Read more

Rearmament and State Policies in the Battle for Minerals

Internationalism No. 88, June 2026 Page 13 In 2025, China was the only power to respond decisively to Donald Trump's trade war, forcing him into an autumn truce through tariffs and, primarily, by blocking exports of some critical minerals. According to the White House, Beijing made a mistake in using the nuclear weapon of its near-monopoly on rare earths, as it triggered a global rush to diversify supplies. That process is indeed underway, but given its high costs and long timescales, it does not seem able to neutralise, at least in the short term, the powerful mineral deterrent established by the Chinese government. A multilateral Trump The US government's counteroffensive is underway both domestically, in an attempt to rebuild an industrial sector for the extraction and processing of these substances in the US, and internationally, through a series of agreements. Among the mo...
Read more

American Convulsion and the Crisis in the World Order in Hormuz

Internationalism No. 87, May 2026 Pages 4 and 5 With the war against Iran and the naval blockade of Iranian ports in response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has plunged the energy artery of the Persian Gulf into chaos. This has triggered economic, social, and political upheavals from East to West, the full extent and uneven distribution of which have yet to be fully assessed. That the third Gulf War of American imperialism would have unintended consequences had long been written into the laws of politics. Every political action, all the more so if conducted by military means, is part of a parallelogram of forces, the result of which can never correspond to the intention of any individual actor involved. The objective each power pursues is either hindered or aided by the others. Therefore, the course of the conflict will correspond, to a greater or lesser extent, ...
Read more

Revolutionary Spain

Internationalism No. 86, April 2026 Page 8 From the series Spain 1936 Spain, Marx observed in 1854 in the article Revolutionary Spain , was the first European feudal State to develop absolutism in its most unmitigated form , but political and fiscal centralisation never really took hold there. Similarly, it was Spanish caravels that opened up the era of the world market, and the Kingdom of Spain was the first great bourgeois maritime-trading empire. Yet that early and rapid rise ended up transforming itself from a favourable precondition for development into the cause of Spain's subsequent failure. In fact, the maritime overextension of the empire, combined with the failed political and fiscal centralisation of the Iberian heartland, resulted in stagnation and a subsequently inglorious and protracted putrefaction . While the economic and social arteries were becoming scl...
Read more