From the series Chronicles of the new American nationalism
Washington is redefining its commitments in Europe and the Middle East, while reaffirming its presence in the Western Hemisphere and coming to terms with China's rise in every theatre.
Donald Trump has imposed tariffs and threatened adversaries and allies, gaining bargaining leverage without, for now, provoking the catastrophic outcomes predicted by critics. In nine months, he has achieved successes
, acknowledges David Sanger of The New York Times, an opposition newspaper: many allies will spend more on defence and various regional conflicts have been defused, at least temporarily, including those in the Middle East. However, Trump's approach is erratic
. Some commentators have tried to make the process intelligible, even to policymakers.
Rival tribes
In a widely cited 2022 essay, Jeremy Shapiro and Majda Ruge of the European Council on Foreign Relations considered how the Republican Party entered the primaries split on key foreign policy questions
. As a result, aspiring Republican leaders and political entrepreneurs
competed to define such a foreign policy doctrine
, dividing themselves into three tribes
: the restrainers, who belong to the Jacksonian tradition
, want to moderate foreign commitments in order to focus on domestic issues; the prioritisers emphasise, like the restrainers
, that resources are limited, but the existential threat on which to focus them is China; finally, the primacists argue that Washington can and must
maintain its leadership and military presence around the world, but require America's allies, particularly in Europe and east Asia, to contribute more to global security challenges
.
The three groups differ over the nature of the United States' role in the world, the attitude toward allies and alliances, and the commitment to European security
; one of these tribes will likely revolutionise US foreign policy
.
Four traditions
In referring to the Jacksonian tradition
, Shapiro alludes to one of the political cultures of American exceptionalism, of which Walter Russell Mead, columnist for The Wall Street Journal, provides an original account in Special Providence [2001].
Mead, rejecting the opposition between realism and idealism, or isolationism and interventionism, explains the shifts in American foreign policy as a clash between four traditions
.
Jacksonian populist-nationalists are focused on the welfare of the middle class and share the traditional values of the Scottish-Irish settlers of the Frontier. They are sceptical of permanent and costly foreign commitments, such as wars and alliances. However, they do not oppose large defence expenditures to secure borders or having partners who consider common threats their own responsibility. They are endowed with an instinctive realism, aimed at maximising gain in every confrontation, and are uncomfortable with moderating their use of force when they finally decide to strike.
The Hamiltonian school, at its best, perceives the global balance of power through economic forces and is sensitive to business. For Jeffersonians, using the least costly strategy to defend America is a necessary condition for preserving its democratic tradition. Wilsonians promote a world order that reflects American values.
For Mead, moreover, the continent-sized dimensions of the United States made it both possible and inevitable that Washington's attention would be captured by some areas of the world rather than others, depending on who was in charge of foreign policy.
In 2023, Mead divided Joe Biden's team into Wilsonians, pragmatists, and Asia Firsters, with a pattern of rival factions similar to Shapiro's.
Descriptive account of political currents
The theories of the team of rivals
, of strategic directions, and of interests – like those of political psychology – are theoretical rationalisations of the process by which Washington defines its policy, but they are useful for descriptive purposes. Moreover, these frameworks need to be understood in order to follow the American debate on its own terms, since Mead's formulas feature frequently.
At the hearing on the nomination of Elbridge Colby as undersecretary of the Pentagon, Missouri Senator Eric Schmitt introduced himself as a fellow realist
to the candidate, inviting him to elaborate on a shared position denied by a Wilsonian adventurism that has defined post-Cold War foreign policy
: We can't be everywhere all at once all the time. That is the truth [...] whether that is Jacksonian or Jeffersonian or prioritiser or realist, whatever you want to call it
.
For his part, Gideon Rachman, international politics commentator for the Financial Times, used Shapiro's models to illustrate a series of clashes within the administration between Jacksonian restrainers led by Vice President J.D. Vance, prioritisers led by Elbridge Colby, and primacists led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Provisional balances
The restrainers, writes Rachman, were enthusiastic that Trump wanted to abandon Ukraine and move closer to Russia, even though, in his first term, he did not keep his promises to withdraw from Syria, Afghanistan, and NATO. They were a minority of the GOP elite. Only 11 senators and 57 representatives voted against the arms package for Ukraine in May 2022. However, Shapiro believed these numbers were poised to rise considerably
. By May 2024, opposition in the Senate had risen to 15, including Rubio. The primacists, often establishment figures who all joined the MAGA bandwagon
, see the abandonment of one theatre as a vacuum that will be filled by others. For them, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a direct consequence
of the withdrawal from Afghanistan. In nine months, Rachman reports, each school has had victories and defeats.
The restrainers have managed to limit aid to Kyiv, forcing Europeans to fill the financial gap and getting allies to pay more for defence. However, Trump's threat to leave NATO and Rubio's offer to resume business with Russia in his meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov did not materialise: a victory for the primacists. In fact, disappointed by his meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Trump tightened sanctions against Russia.
Even the raid against the Houthis in Yemen, which Vance opposed, and the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities were decisions imposed on the restrainer faction and welcomed by the primacists, although those who hoped for regime change in Tehran were disappointed. Finally, the primacists are leading the aggressive policy against Nicolás Maduro's government in Venezuela, aligning it with migration policy.
The cut in aid to Kyiv is in line with the prioritisers' vision, but the rumour that the Pentagon's stance, for which Colby himself is responsible, will give priority to the Western Hemisphere over the confrontation with China sounds like a repudiation.
In summary, for Rachman, the Jacksonian restrainers have had a victory in Europe, limited by the primacists who have achieved a triumph
in the Middle East and led the campaign in Latin America. So far, the prioritisers have fared the worst. However, they could consider Trump's agreements in Asia, which include nuclear submarines for South Korea, to be successes.
Conversely, in April, Mead argued that the Jacksonians had led policy in the Western Hemisphere to defend their home borders, while finding in Israel a partner to deal with Iran, their common adversary, and pushing the Europeans to deal with Russia. However, it would be a mistake to underestimate how the cards Washington has gained in the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America can be played in the great game with Beijing.
PRIMACISTS AND RESTRAINERS
Marco Rubio [Florida, 1971]. The son of Cuban immigrants and a Catholic, he was elected senator in Washington in 2011. From liberist and inclusive positions on immigration, he shifted to a protectionist and securitarian approach after 2016. A hawk
on China, Chavist regimes in Latin America, and Russia, he argued in a 2020 interview with Walter Russell Mead that Trump, having challenged the bipartisan consensus on alliances, would offer an opportunity in a second term to rethink
the two themes that run through [foreign policy] throughout [American] history
: the balance between our ideals as a nation and our national interests
, and the struggle between the exuberance of our power, which is considerable, and our limits
. In Trump's second term, he was appointed secretary of State and took on the roles of national security advisor (NSA) in May and national archivist in February, as well as managing the foreign development agency (USAID) between February and August.
Mike Waltz [Florida, 1974]. A career military man, then a member of Congress, he opposed the withdrawal from Afghanistan announced by Barack Obama's administration. In Trump's second term, he was appointed NSA and welcomed as a solid choice by the establishment. He resigned after introducing a journalist from The Atlantic to a Signal group in which various officials, including Rubio and Vance, discussed military operations in the Red Sea against the Houthis and to which Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth had uploaded classified documents. Waltz was then appointed ambassador to the UN.
Lindsey Graham [South Carolina, 1955]. Orphaned while at university, he enlisted and was hired as a lawyer by the Air Force. A Baptist Christian, he was elected senator in 2002. With fellow party member John McCain of Arizona, he sought bipartisan consensus on foreign policy and challenged his own party on immigration. He supported McCain's 2008 presidential bid and ran in the 2016 primaries. Graham considered Trump a jackass
, but then became one of his most loyal allies, explaining: He is very popular in my State. When I help him, it helps me back home
. He sponsored Nikki Haley, governor of South Carolina and then ambassador to the UN [2017-18]. Graham chairs the Budget Committee and serves on the Judiciary, Environment and Public Works, and Appropriations Committees, where he is responsible for, among other things, defence spending. Criticised as a spokesperson for the military-industrial complex, Graham has used his weight in the Senate to advance hawkish positions on every theatre and meet with leaders of major countries.
James D. Vance [Ohio, 1984]. A volunteer in the Marines, he graduated from Yale. He was hired by Mithril, a company owned by Peter Thiel, investor and intellectual leader in Silicon Valley. In 2016, he made a name for himself with his novel Hillbilly Elegy, in which he recounts his American dream
, which began in an extended family that received food stamps, the federal food assistance programme that now covers 42 million low-income Americans. I identify with the millions of working-class white Americans of Scots-Irish descent who have no college degree
, he said in 2016, when he was still a harsh critic of Trump. He converted to Catholicism and, in 2022, was elected senator from Ohio, with the help of a fund aligned with former GOP leader Mitch McConnell and funding from Thiel. He was chosen as Trump's vice president.