Skip to main content

The Anvil and the Hammer

Here it is at last, the Trump Doctrine, laid out in black and white in the NSS, the National Security Strategy. Some comment that it is more of an ideological manifesto than a real action plan, a patchwork of positions from the various political currents that move in and around the White House. That may be true; sometimes these documents amount to little and end up forgotten. Yet, the fact remains that the NSS pieces together fragments of pre-existing American policies, and is therefore not simply dominated by Trump's ideological fervour. Moreover, it describes things that the United States is already doing. It asserts American primacy in Central and South America – and Washington is increasing military pressure on Venezuela. Russia is no longer considered an enemy – and Trump is dealing with Putin over the heads of the Europeans. There is an offer of coexistence with China – and we saw the thawing of relations between Trump and Xi in South Korea. And so forth.

This is also why the most hard-hitting part of the document, a declared hostility towards the EU, is taken extremely seriously in Europe. It is said to be a declaration of political war. A call for a transatlantic divorce. The beginning of the end for the Atlantic Alliance. We shall see; what is certain is that the Atlantic crisis is at a turning point, and Europe has to react. The European Council has allocated €90 billion to Ukraine, and to that end it has launched more Eurobonds. Through a pragmatic approach, majority voting has effectively been introduced in practice. Arm Ukraine to arm Europe seemed like a catchy slogan, but rearmament is now mobilising billions.

Europe risks being caught between America and China, they say. If it does not want to be the anvil, it must become the hammer. A trick of memory: this was the image evoked by Bernhard von Bülow at the end of 1899 to justify German naval rearmament. In the 20th century of Weltpolitik – world politics – Germany could be either the hammer or the anvil, at the mercy of other powers. A large fleet capable of competing with the British Royal Navy would make the difference. We know how that ended.

War is back at the centre of political struggle. Can we prevent history from repeating itself? We need proletarian opposition to European imperialism and its rearmament, but only the revolutionary path can truly achieve this. The internationalist battle must be organised. It must be done now, or the anvil will be the workers and young people, once again facing conscription talks. A European Leninism must be built.

The end of the year is when the major Italian research and analysis institutes take stock: as far as the world of work is concerned, the emerging picture is far from clear-cut.

The backdrop is demographic dynamics: Italy ended 2024 with fewer than 370,000 births, and 2025 is set to mark another record low, with around 350,000 expected. Sixty years ago, in 1965, there were more than a million births, three times the level of today.

Demographics and the world of work

Overall economic activity has seen increases below 1%: 0.7% in 2024 and an estimated 0.5% in 2025, while industrial production has been declining since 2023. Contractual wages are clearly in decline: according to ISTAT, in September 2025 they were still 8.8% below January 2021 levels.

These figures need be taken into account when considering the much-publicised historic high in employment of 24.2 million reached in October. As Francesco Giavazzi notes [Corriere della Sera, December 11th], an increase in employment combined with stagnant GDP indicates more low-productivity jobs. Furthermore, in analysing the age groups, it can be seen that the entire increase in employment is attributable to the over 50s, due to the combined effect of the labour-market reform of the Fornero Law and reduced options for early retirement. The one-year increase of 483,000 in employment for this age group compares with decreases of 100,000 in the 35-49 age group, 51,000 in the 25-34 age group, and 108,000 in the 15-24 age group [Il Sole 24 Ore, December 3rd].

Combined with the demographic decline, all this does not bode well for employment in the coming years. According to a report from the Italian Centre for Social Investment Studies (Censis), 84% of the increase in the two-year period 2023-24 was attributable to people over the age of 50.

European restructuring

On the employment front we must also consider the ongoing crises, some of which are significant. One of these is the crisis at the former Ilva steel works in Italy, which has required workers to respond decisively, in a struggle which is nonetheless defensive and with as yet uncertain prospects.

Restructuring is in fact an ongoing process in all the old metropolises, under pressure from new emerging powers. Staying with the steel industry, we can point to the case of ThyssenKrupp in Germany, where the metalworkers' union IG Metall has had to sign an agreement that includes a reduction in production, the closure of plants, the elimination of 5,300 jobs (part of a plan to cut 11,000 jobs by 2030), and wage cuts for employees. In the automotive sector, discussions are set to reopen within the Volkswagen group, where four sites are operating below capacity. This comes just one year after the Christmas compromise was reached on a reduction of 35,000 jobs by 2030. From the corporate perspective, this may not be sufficient.

Market contradictions

The Italian labour market, meanwhile, continues to display contradictions. What emerges from the periodic survey of the Excelsior project on companies' employment programmes, collected by the Italian Chamber of Commerce, is that projected demand for labour for the period December 2025 to February 2026 shows a decline, reflecting the economic situation. Nevertheless, companies continue to report significant difficulties in finding staff, stating that they have problems finding 46% of the profiles required. As a result, the use of foreign workers is still increasing: they account for 22.7% of companies' projected demand, compared to 19.1% a year ago, an increase of 3.5 points.

This is now an established reality that everyone will have to accept. According to the statistical dossier on immigration, IDOS 2025, the increase in employment in 2024, which the sovereignist government touts as its crowning achievement, has seen Italian workers grow by 1% and foreign workers by 5.9%. The immigrant component of the Italian labour force is expanding and is set to expand further.

Foreigners and immigrants

Furthermore, in order to assess the real weight of the immigrant component, a more complete calculation must be made. Usually, only foreign workers, i.e., those without Italian citizenship, are included. However, every year, a proportion of immigrants who have been resident for a sufficient length of time obtain citizenship. In the five years between 2020 and 2024, there were a total of 900,000 new Italian citizens, a figure that has been growing over the last three years, with more than 200,000 each year. Some of these people enter the world of work, swelling the ranks of workers with an immigrant background. According to the Leone Moressa Foundation, 1.2 million foreign-born workers should be added to the 2.5 million foreign workers (10.5% of the labour force), bringing the total number of immigrant workers to 3.7 million, or 15.2% [XV Rapporto annuale sull’economia dell’immigrazione, 2025].

Another calculation is provided by the INPS – the Italian institute for social security – in its July 2025 report, which considers workers insured according to country of birth. Among private sector wage earners – including agricultural workers, domestic workers, and carers, but excluding the public sector – the share rises to 19.5%. In short, one in five of such workers comes from an immigrant background.

Given its growing importance, this segment of the working class deserves closer study. An ISTAT report in February 2023 focuses on foreigners and naturalised citizens in the Italian labour market. From this, we can glean some characteristics of naturalised citizens, linked to their longer stay in Italy. Naturalised citizens have higher educational qualifications than foreigners: 60% have a diploma or degree, compared to 46%. They skilled professions in 21% of cases, compared to 8%, although more are qualified for these professions, given their education. They obviously have a better knowledge of the Italian language: eight out of ten are at an advanced level, compared to an average of five out of ten for foreigners. And with a better knowledge of the language, ISTAT notes, the chances of finding work also increase.

This factor is also relevant for technical jobs, where the number of immigrants can be expected to increase, given the demand for workers. This form of social mobility is set to shape the future of the working class.

Bourgeois imbalances, internationalist perspective

From all this, we can also infer how heavily the dysfunctions of parliamentary politics weigh against the very needs of the bourgeoisie itself. Migration flows are proof of this. Already insufficient to meet labour requirements, they have proved even less effective in practice: of the quota of work permits for foreign workers allocated for 2023, only about 9% resulted in actual employment contracts [IDOS, 2025]. Bureaucratic obstacles are compounded by xenophobic and racist campaigns.

For the ruling class, immigrants are labour-power to be incorporated into the production process to fill labour shortages. However, even with this need, there are signs of the imbalance of an ageing and fearful society.

For Leninists, on the other hand, immigrants are a component of the wage-earning class to be organised. It is the same for trade unions: foreigners make up 15% of active workers registered with confederal trade unions, but they account for a third of workers in construction and 25-30% in transport, logistics, agriculture, and the food industry. These percentages increase when new Italian citizens are also taken into account.

The scope for unionisation is increasingly broad. But our commitment as internationalists lies above all in the perspective of the political unity of the working class.

Lotta Comunista, December 2025
Labels:

Popular posts in the last week

India’s Weaknesses in the Global Spotlight

Farmers’ protests around New Delhi have been going on for four months now. A controversial intervention by the Supreme Court has suspended the implementation of the new agticultural laws, but has raised questions about the dynamics between the judiciary and the executive, and has failed to unblock the negotiations between government and peasant organisations. The assault by Sikh farmers on the Red Fort during the Republic Day parade as India was displaying its military might to the outside world — the Chinese Global Times maliciously noted — paradoxically widened the protest in the huge state of Uttar Pradesh. The Modi government has been trying to revive India’s image with the 2021 Union Budget: it announced one hundred privatisations and approved the increase to 75% of the limit on direct foreign investment in insurance companies. For The Indian Express ( IEX ) this is a sign of the commitment to push ahead with reforms despite the backlash from rural India. Also for The Economi...
Read more

China’s Electromechanical Champions

Internationalism No. 85, March 2026 Page 9 From the series Major industrial groups in China Analysing the WTO data for 2023, it emerges that China exported goods worth $3,379 billion, surpassing the European Union and the United States. Industrial machinery accounted for over 7% of exports and electrical machinery 9%. In the same sectors, Chinese imports did not reach 40% of the value of exports, indicating that these are among the pillars of Beijing’s export economy. Sany Heavy Industry In this newspaper we have already examined the Chinese mechanical engineering giant Sinomach. But in the field of machine construction, Sany Heavy Industry also holds a prominent position, particularly in excavators, cranes, industrial elevators, and cement machinery. The company, based in Changsha (Hunan) since 1991, was founded by Liang Wengen, who had previously been an executive at a State-owned arms factory, and is its main shareholder. Sany had a 2023 turnover...
Read more

The Defeat in Afghanistan — a Watershed in the Cycle of Atlantic Decline

In crises and wars there are events which leave their mark on history because of how they make a decisive impact on the power contention, or because of how, almost like a chemical precipitate, they suddenly make deep trends that have been at work for some time coalesce. This is the case of the defeat of the United States and NATO in Afghanistan, which is taking the shape of a real watershed in the cycle of Atlantic decline. For the moment, through various comments in the international press, it is possible to consider its consequences on three levels: America’s position as a power and the connection with its internal crisis; the repercussions on Atlantic relations and Europe’s dilemmas regarding its strategic autonomy; and the relationship between the Afghan crisis and power relations in Asia, especially as regards India’s role in the Indo-Pacific strategy. Repercussions in the United States Richard Haass is the president of the CFR, the Council on Foreign Relations; despite having ...
Read more

Euro-solubility

Before capsules and pods, there was freeze-dried instant coffee powder, which of course tasted nothing like a real espresso. Now: for some time we have been following the vicissitudes of sovereigntists and populists with the idea that their political future depended on their Euro-solubility . Referring to the law-and-order, xenophobic and immigrant-hostile traits that have become common currency in European debates, we wrote that a Europe that protects could use the anti-immigration rhetoric of the sovereigntists to keep them on the leash of the pro-European strategic consensus. No sooner said that done. In Italy, as in France and other European countries, that phenomenon is in full swing. In Italy, the Five Star Movement has already embarked on its path to conversion a year and a half ago, entrusted with no less than the direction of Italian diplomacy. And even the Lega, believe it or not, has become a pro-European party overnight. In France, a similar process has seized Marine Le P...
Read more

The Unstoppable Force: Capital’s Demand for Migrant Labour

Internationalism No. 78-79, August-September 2025 Page 16 “Before Giorgia Meloni became Italy’s prime minister, she pledged to cut immigration. Since she has been in government the number of non-EU work visas issued by Italy has increased”. This is how The Economist of April 26th summarises the schizophrenia of their politics; and this is not only true in Italy: “Net migration also surged in post-Brexit Britain”. The needs of the economic system do not coincide with the rhetoric of parliamentarism. And vice versa. Schizophrenia and imbalances in their politics Returning to Italy, the Bank of Italy has pointed out that by 2040, in just fifteen years, there will be a shortage of five million people of working age, which could lead to an estimated 11% contraction in GDP. This is why even Italy’s “sovereignist” government is preparing to widen the net of its Immigration Flow Decree. The latest update, approved on June 30th, provides for the entry of almost ...
Read more

Democratic Defeat in the Urban Vote

Internationalism No. 71, January 2025 Page 2 From the series Elections in the USA A careful analysis of the 2022 mid-term elections revealed the symptoms of a Democratic Party malaise which subsequently fully manifested itself in the latest presidential election, with the heavy loss of support in its traditional strongholds of the metropolitan areas of New York City and Chicago, and the State of California. A defeat foretold Republican votes rose from 51 million in the previous 2018 midterms to 54 million in 2022, a gain of 3 million. The Democrat vote fell from 61 to 51 million, a loss of 10 million. The Republicans gained only three votes for every ten lost by the Democrats, while the other seven became abstentions. In 2022, we analysed the elections in New York City by borough, the governmental districts whose names are well known through movies and TV series. In The Bronx, where the average yearly household income is $35,000, the Democrats lost 52,00...
Read more

In the Depth of Our Class

The pandemic of the century is a storm that does not subside; it returns to its rampage after 40 million infections and more than a million official victims, perhaps two million according to estimates on the excess deaths. In the contention between powers, China stands as the winner: it seems to have tamed the virus, and industry and services are up and running; the USA and Europe, on the other hand, are moving towards a new wave of infections that casts yet more shadows on the economic cycle. Political structures and health systems are at the height of tension. In America, the elections have judged Donald Trump’s rash demagogy on the basis of the opposite reasons for containing the pandemic and the intolerance of small and large producers; in Europe the executives are attempting to steer between the surge in infections, increasingly stringent confinement measures and the threats of fiscal jacquerie in the tourism and catering sectors. Almost everywhere, in the Old Continent, governm...
Read more

Armed Negotiations between the Gulf and the Mediterranean

David Petraeus, Commander of the US forces in Iraq and the Gulf in 2007-2008, then director of the CIA in 2011-12, described the elimination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on January 3 rd in Baghdad as a defensive action , with which the Trump presidency restored a US deterrence , which was weakened by recent Iranian actions . This is a reference to the attacks conducted indirectly, unclaimed by Tehran, against the Saudi oil infrastructures on September 14 th 2019. In March 2008, when the forces under Petraeus’ command supported the Iraqi Army in the fight against local Shite militias, Soleimani sent a message to the American general: informing him that he was the person in charge for Iranian policies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza therefore the channel through which to define an agreement to resolve the various issues with Tehran. Petraeus holds the advisors of the Quds Force, the spearhead of the Pasdaran asymmetric operations, responsible for the killing of around 600 ...
Read more

Biden Plan and Global Minimum Tax

Recovery from the pandemic crisis — writes the IMF in April’s World Economic Outlook — is increasingly visible due to three factors: first, hundreds of millions of people are being vaccinated; second, companies and employees have somewhat adapted to the healthcare disaster; and finally governments especially the American have pledged massive government — extra fiscal support. Governmental fiscal interventions have reached $16,000 billion worldwide, have averted collapse of the economy that would have been three times worse, blocking the 2020 recession at a 3.3% drop, and have pushed the recovery rate to 6% in 2021. The overall recovery will be the outcome of a series of divergent recoveries . Only the United States, with a 6.4% growth rate, will exceed the GDP level predicted before the pandemic. The disparity regards healthcare first of all. High-income countries, representing 16% of global population, have already bought up half of the vaccine doses. The real estate, financial and ...
Read more

‘Two Hands’ and ‘Two Roads’

From the series News from the Silk Road The international tensions which China will face on the seas in the next fifteen years could find a buffer in the expansion of China’s influence on land in Central, Southern and Western Asia. Wang Jisi is the dean of the School of International Studies at the University of Beijing and a major figure of the American party in China. His unexpected foray into ‘geopolitics’ has reignited the old clash between different American currents — a phenomenon we analysed more than twenty years ago. At the time, Robert Manning, the author of The Asian Energy Factor and adviser to the State Department in 1991, viewed Asia’s growing dependence on the Persian Gulf for its energy requirements in the light of geoeconomics and geostrategy and foresaw a possible convergence between the USA and China. From a geoeconomic standpoint, both trade and the funding and development of the infrastructure necessary for Asia’s energy needs were more important than terri...
Read more