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Social Change in New York's Vote

From the series Elections in the USA

According to a February 13th press release from the 5BORO Institute, a New York research centre, 42% of New Yorkers cite housing as their main economic challenge, and 78% say that housing costs have worsened in recent years. Democrat Zohran Mamdani's success in the recent New York City mayoral election was helped by his programme to tackle the issue of housing in the American metropolis.

Voter abstention prevailed

In 2020, New York had 8.8 million inhabitants, 7 million of whom were over the age of 18. Since about 85% of them are American citizens, it can be estimated that about 6 million were eligible to vote.

To vote in the State of New York, you have to register, and in November there were 5.3 million registered voters in the city, 3.5 million of whom were Democrats. In this last mayoral election, two million people voted – about 33% of the eligible population. Of these, one million voted for Mamdani. The calculation is simple: Mamdani received about 17% of the votes of residents over the age of 18, 19% of registered voters, and 29% of registered Democrats. This is a far cry from Kamala Harris's victory in New York City in 2024, when she defeated Donald Trump by 1.9 million votes. Voter abstention prevailed: 65% of American citizens over 18, and 62% of registered voters living in New York, did not vote. Only a minority supported Mamdani.

Being a member of a growing and increasingly influential Indian-American community also worked to his advantage [New Delhi Television, November 5th]. His father, Mahmood Mamdani, is a professor at Columbia University who grew up in Uganda but is originally from Gujarat and is a Muslim. His mother is Mira Nair, a famous Indian film director originally from Punjab and a Hindu.

New York City is not America

New York City has unique demographics compared to other American cities, with a significant imbalance between housing supply and demand. Mamdani has skilfully exploited this with his Housing by and for New York programme, a plan that aims to create 200,000 new affordable homes and implement an immediate rent freeze for the two million apartments regulated by law. The plan is based on the idea that the government should be the main driver of affordable housing creation. This is a huge undertaking, estimated at $100 billion over ten years.

New York is the most densely populated city in the US, with 29,300 inhabitants per square mile, compared to 18,600 in San Francisco, 12,000 in Chicago, 3,700 in Atlanta, and 3,600 in Houston. This inevitably puts pressure on the housing market, pushing prices up to levels that become an obstacle even for high-income social classes.

New York's situation is atypical when compared to the rest of the United States. In 2023 it had a total of 3,705,000 housing units, of which 1,109,000 were owner-occupied, accounting for 30%, and 2,324,000 were occupied by tenants, accounting for 63% [Fast Facts About NYC Housing]. At 30%, it has the lowest home ownership rate in the US, compared to the American average of 66%.

Over 40% of New York tenants spend 30% or more of their income on rent, and a quarter spend 50%. In Manhattan, the average sale price of a home is $1.3 million, and the average monthly rent is $5,706 [Manhattan, NY Housing Market]. Extending this figure to the whole of New York City, the average monthly rent was $3,491 in mid-2025 [Realtor.com]. This is equal to 48% of the city's average household income of $88,000 per year.

To bring down house prices, supply must be increased: according to Norada Real Estate Investments, the city needs about 500,000 new housing units by 2030, but only about 40,000 were built in 2024. This shortfall means that prices will continue to rise.

The vote for Mamdani

The ethnic change in New York's population is an important phenomenon. This is a combination of the arrival of people born outside the city and the exodus of those born there. Between 1970 and 2020, 305,000 foreign-born people arrived in the Bronx and 306,000 US-born people left, while 523,000 foreign-born people entered Brooklyn and 395,000 US-born people left. Overall, 1.8 million foreign-born people entered New York City during this period, while one million US-born people left. This huge influx and exodus contributed to Mamdani's victory but is unmatched elsewhere in the United States.

2025 NEW YORK MAYORAL ELECTION

Population share (%) Vote % Mamdani Vote % Cuomo Difference between Mamdani and Cuomo
White504546-1
Black175738+19
Latino175239+13
Asian106232+30
Other65739+12
 
No diploma44048-8
High school diploma174046-6
Some college134147-6
Associate degree / intermediate846460
Bachelor's degree315738+19
Postgraduate275738+19
 
Household income
Below $30,000164248-6
$30,000-$49,999145340+13
$50,000-$99,999275636+20
Above $100,000435043+7
 
Time living in NYC
Less than 5 years78514+71
5-10 years87819+59
More than 10 years375540+15
Born in NYC453849-11
 
Housing
Own home383853-15
Rent575934+25
 
Most important issues
Immigration92758-31
Crime221867-49
Cost of living556629+37
 
Housing cost as a problem
Major problem705933+26
Minor problem142762-35
Not a problem123163-32

Note: Percentages do not sum to 100 because there were other candidates. Data are approximate CNN exit-poll results in percentages.

According to CNN exit polls, 45% of voters in the recent election were born in New York City. Among these, Andrew Cuomo won with 49% to Mamdani's 38%. Fifteen per cent of voters were not born in New York and have lived there for less than ten years, with Mamdani winning 81% to 17% among this group. Thirty-seven per cent were not born there but have lived in New York City for more than ten years: Mamdani won 55% of their vote against Cuomo's 40%. Since only approximately 16% of the US population was born abroad, compared to 52% of New Yorkers, the results of the recent election cannot be extrapolated to the national level.

Among voters, 57% live in rented accommodation: among these, Mamdani, with his programme, won 59% to 34%. Conversely, 38% own their own homes and rewarded Cuomo with 53% to 38%.

Although 47% of the adult population in New York City has a bachelor's degree or higher (a bachelor's degree in the US is obtained at the age of 22, after twelve years of non-university schooling and four years of college or university), among voters this figure rises to 58%. In this group of voters, Mamdani won with 57% to 38%. Those with an annual household income above $100,000, 43% of voters, chose Mamdani by 50% to 43%. The upper-middle and upper social classes with high levels of education supported Mamdani and his housing plan. This is not surprising when you look at monthly rents and house prices, although the liberal social psychology of the upper strata of the service and professional sectors undoubtedly plays a role.

According to Apartments.com, in November 2025, the cost of living in New York was 1.3 times the national average, but housing was four times more expensive. In New York, high rents and housing costs also affect the high-income classes. This explains why 70% of voters considered housing to be the most important issue; among these, Mamdani won by 59% to 33%.

The New York Times, after enthusiastically welcoming Mamdani's victory, began to show its concerns. The young new mayor's meteoric rise was fuelled by four key policy proposals: universal childcare, free buses, municipally-owned supermarkets, and rent freezes for rent-controlled apartments. According to the newspaper, Mamdani's plans have excited New Yorkers, but may be difficult to implement [November 7th].

Lotta Comunista, November 2025

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