From the series The arms industry put to the test in the Gulf
The Pentagon has dubbed the US war against Iran Epic Fury. An assessment after about 40 days into the attacks, coordinated with Israel, indicates that the Iranian political and military leadership has been decimated, nuclear programs further compromised, the Navy hit, air defence capabilities reduced, and significant damage caused to Tehran's missile and drone factories.
Yet, according to The Economist, it would have been better to call the operation Blind Fury because the war did not lead to the fall of the regime, and because it allowed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (where the daily passage of ships collapsed from 135 to 4), thus greatly harming the European and Asian allies of the US. We will not deal here with the roles of those who sought and supported the war, but only with how the military campaign was conducted and how it was sustained.
Targets generated on an industrial scale
The South China Morning Post, a historic Hong Kong English-language newspaper which has been under the control of the Chinese group Alibaba for a decade, wrote that the US and Israel "are also operating a real-time laboratory of military lessons for Beijing, which has been closely watching". "Analysts", the newspaper continues, "cautioned that US advantages in intelligence, technology and rapid operational adaptability [...] would not automatically translate into sustained warfighting capacity" [April 7].
The first aspect to consider is the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the early days of the conflict. The central US commands were able to take advantage of the services of Maven Smart System, a computer system produced by Palantir Technologies in association with Anthropic. Maven allowed them to hit a thousand targets in the first 24 hours of attacks, that is, roughly one per minute.
Palantir uses 179 different sources for its system, from satellite images to traffic footage, from corporate databases to public health records: from this crucible of sources, it is able to generate targets on an industrial scale. The Wall Street Journal recalls that in attacks only two out of 10 soldiers end up on the front line, the rest provide support and logistics: Maven is not a killer robot, but it helps save manpower and resources.
No matter how sophisticated, Palantir's database can contain incorrect or outdated information, or it can be used by humans who are careless in conducting their final checks. This explains the slaughter of 165 girls at the Minab school and 21 girls of a women's volleyball team at the gym in Lamerd. Both were civilian buildings and as such marked in digital maps on the Internet. Anthropic opposes the autonomous use of its models and the Pentagon has decided to replace it as a supplier. The call for suppliers is open, with OpenAI and Elon Musk's xAI at the forefront.
Firepower
Now let us consider the deployment put in place by Washington for Epic Fury. The Navy deployed two aircraft carriers, an amphibious assault ship, seven destroyers, two submarines, and several corvettes. The Army and Air Force have used at least ten bases in the Middle East alone. At least 90 carrier-based fighter jets and the same number of ground-based fighter planes were deployed, accompanied by bombers, radar aircraft, aerial refuelling tankers, cargo planes, reconnaissance drones, and suicide drones. HIMARS systems capable of launching next-generation Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), with a range of 500 km, have been deployed in Kuwait.
| Used | Stock | Consumption % | Manufacturer | Annual production | Prod. time seven years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomahawk | 1,100 | 3,100 | 35 | RTX | 100 | 1,000 |
| JASSM-ER | 1,100 | 4,400 | 25 | Lockheed Martin | ... | ... |
| PrSM | 70 | 90 | 78 | Lockheed Martin | 350 | 1,400 |
| PAC-3 Patriot | 1,430 | 2,330 | 61 | Lockheed Martin | 600 | 2,000 |
| THAAD | 290 | 360 | 81 | Lockheed Martin | 96 | 400 |
|
Note: The first three types are offensive missiles; the other two are missile-defence systems. Source: CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies). |
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The initial bombings on Iran targeted primary the air defence and anti-missile systems. Standoff missiles, launched from ships or aircraft operating at a safe distance from enemy countermeasures, were used to strike them. The table shows the quantities consumed according to experts' estimations. A Tomahawk cruise missile has a unit cost of $2.5 million, a JASSM-ER air-to-surface missile costs $1 million. Only when Iranian defences were deemed neutralized did the US switch to the use of JDAMs, smart bombs fitted with a precision kit. They cost only $100,000 each, but have a limited range of 30 km.
European friction and diversion from Asia
Flight restrictions imposed by some European countries complicate the air campaign of B1-B and B-52 bombers taking off from Fairford, UK. A direct round-trip route involves 16.5 hours of travel and four in-flight refuellings, whereas an indirect route requires 18 hours of travel and eight refuellings.
It should be noted that part of the force engaged in the Middle East has been moved from Asia. The Lincoln naval group was on a mission in the South China Sea. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, sent to the Gulf, is stationed in Okinawa, Japan, while PAC-3 Patriot and THAAD interceptors have been moved from South Korea. Every movement of equipment reduces the role of US deterrence in the area. With this "robbing Peter to pay Paul", writes the Chinese nationalist newspaper Global Times, "the myth of US 'security guarantees' to its allies was shattered instantly" [April 8].
Under recent agreements with the Pentagon, the American arms industry has committed to doubling missile production: Lockheed Martin and RTX intend to achieve this goal within seven years (as summarised in the table). The CSIS (Centre for Strategic and International Studies) in Washington writes that "a modern interceptor is comprised of thousands of components [...] meaning [possible] shortages in rocket motors, seekers, sensors, semiconductors, or explosives [...] Production leadtimes typically exceed eighteen months and are difficult to compress". Japan is a customer of Tomahawk cruise missiles and expected to receive 400 of them by 2028: it is unlikely that the order will be fulfilled on time.
The Iranian counter-offensive
The Economist estimates that Iran's missile counter-offensive consisted of launching 1,781 drones and 1,891 missiles against Israel, the Gulf countries, and US bases. Nearly 65% of the drones and 27% of the missiles are reported to have penetrated enemy defences.
The US reportedly used around 1,400 interceptor missiles to neutralise the attacks, in addition to the role of fighters in anti-drone operations. F-16 and French Rafale fighter jets, deployed to defend the Emirates, intervened in countering the Shahed drones which have a unit cost of $35,000. Each hour of flight of these fighter jets costs $25,000; in addition, we have to consider that they use AIM-9, AIM-120, and MICA air-to-air missiles, costing between half a million and a million each. The fighter jets could not use their cannons so as not to get too close to the target and possibly be hit by debris.
The damage caused by Iran to US platforms has "a vast and sometimes surprising military cost", wrote The Economist. One E-3 Sentry AWACS radar aircraft (out of a total inventory of 16), a KC-135 aerial refuelling tanker, four F-15 fighter jets, twelve MQ-9 Reaper drones, one AN/FPS-132 radar (out of a total inventory of 5), two AN/TPY-2 radars from the THAAD system, and two C-130J cargo planes were destroyed or severely damaged. Experts state that the US central commands expected massive waves of rockets, numerous and inaccurate. Instead, missiles arrived with pinpoint precision, and not all were intercepted.
Russia and China
The London weekly writes that "the losses raise questions over whether America has been complacent about protecting facilities and valuable equipment, and whether Russia or China might be giving Iran targeting information" [April 4].
A report written by the Hudson Institute (Washington) last September summarised the relations between Iran, Russia, and China. Russia has been unable or unwilling to supply Tehran with Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 missile defence systems. In the June 2025 crash, Israel reportedly made short work of the outdated S-200 and S-300 systems that Iran does possess. The HQ-9 is a version of the latter equipped with significantly superior Chinese electronics (command and control, radar, and seeker). It is not known whether these systems are operational in Iran.
Beijing instead has granted Tehran full access to its BeiDou-3 navigation system and, according to the same American source we are citing, is said to have supported Iran's missile production by supplying sodium perchlorate, a propellant component, as well as guidance systems and microprocessors.
Respecting spy satellites, links between the Iranian armed forces and Chang Guang Satellite Technology are said to be well established: this company operates China's largest commercial constellation, Jilin-1, offering imagery commercially, particularly of ship movements. The Financial Times has not reported an agreement signed in 2024 between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force and the Chinese company Spacety, which allegedly transferred the software and network to operate the TEE-01B observation satellite: Beijing denies it.