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Satellites, Missiles, and Fighters for European Deterrence

From the series War industry and European defence

In early March, Emmanuel Macron delivered a highly awaited speech on the country's nuclear doctrine at the Île Longue naval base in front of the submarine Le Téméraire. Our deterrence is solid and effective, said the president, but the international landscape, the emergence of regional powers, and the possibility of coordination among adversaries leads us to the conclusion that strengthening our arsenal is essential. France will therefore increase the number of its nuclear warheads. The fact that our deterrence is inviolable, continued Macron, does not mean it is inert. We have to consider it embedded in the heart of the European continent [...], through the gradual implementation of what I would call forward deterrence.

Nuclear and conventional

In other words, this means reaching agreements with other countries. Already last July, at a summit held in London, France and the UK stated that their nuclear forces will remain independent but, at the same time, coordinated, sharing a special responsibility for the continent's security.

Germany will be a key partner. On the same day as the Île Longue speech, a joint statement signed by Macron and the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was released. It states that a high-level nuclear steering group has been established between the two countries, charged with advancing doctrinal dialogue, coordinating, and developing their correlated conventional military capabilities. In this article, we focus on conventional armaments, while the political significance of the French offer and the support it has received were addressed in the last issue of our newspaper.

Before crossing the nuclear threshold — says Macron — Europe needs specific capabilities: early warning, enhanced air defence to protect itself from threats, and deep strike capacity in order to both counteract and to act offensively. This is what we call épaullement [conventional support]. To be strong in our nuclear deterrence, we must be strong in our conventional capabilities, in all their dimensions.

EUROFIGHTER AND DASSAULT
Typhoon Rafale
Germany 201 France 210
UK 159 Greece 24
Italy 120 Croatia 12
Spain 118 Serbia 12
Austria 15 UAE 80
Türkiye 20 Egypt 55
S. Arabia 72 Qatar 36
Kuwait 28 India 62
Qatar 24 Indonesia 42
Oman 12
Total 769 Total 533
Orders subdivided by country: 186 Rafales and 152 Typhoons still to be delivered.
Sources: Dassault Aviation, Airbus.

Three capabilities

Let's start with the first of the specific capabilities mentioned by Macron. Today, there are no European early warning systems based in space. Every warning of a ballistic missile aimed at hitting the continent is based on American capabilities. In order to bridge this gap, there exists an initiative financed by the EDF (European Defence Fund): the Odin's Eye programme, coordinated by German company OHB, which envisages the launch and deployment of early warning satellites before 2030.

This would be the first line of defence, backed by the infrastructure outlined in last October's Franco-German agreement, named JEWEL (Joint Early Warning for a European Lookout). Both countries would launch into geostationary orbit one or two satellites to identify the heat emitted by boosters during ballistic launches. The whole network would have interoperable capabilities, which would be connected to those of a ground-based radar system, likely designed by Thales, and to interceptor missiles produced by MBDA. Macron stresses in his speech that JEWEL would provide Europe with sovereign capabilities.

The sovereignty rule does not apply to the second specific capability. This is the anti-missile ESSI (European Sky Shield Initiative) defence launched by Germany and joined by many European countries: in fact, it is based on American (Patriot) and Israeli (Arrow) systems. The French president mentions the SAMP/T Franco-Italian system, just purchased by Denmark. According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung correspondent from Paris, France admits that the German initiative also contributes to improving the continent's defence.

Finally, the third specific capability is long-range strikes. According to the French president, this is what will offer us new options for managing the escalation conventionally. Macron mentions the ELSA (European Long-range Strike Approach) programme signed by France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Sweden, and Italy, the only country that has not yet adhered to the forward deterrence offered by Paris. The agreement envisages collaboration for the development of missiles able to exceed a range of 2,000 kilometres. These could be cruise missiles planned by MBDA or ballistic missiles produced by ArianeGroup, the producer of the M51.3 nuclear missiles carried by French submarines.

The FCAS-SCAF system

As we have tried to summarise, extended deterrence requires the development of new arms. We see in this the expression of a political will of European imperialism, but blockages may occur, dictated on the one hand by different military requirements and on the other by the clashes between competing industries.

It is significant that at Île Longue, Macron made no mention of the FCAS (Future Combat Air System) or SCAF (Système de Combat Aérien du Futur) projects. The initiative was born in 2017 as the result of a Franco-German agreement, which Spain joined two years later. Its aim is to set up a combat system around a sixth-generation (6G) fighter, accompanied by wingman drones, all of which are connected to a cloud-based system that would link them to satellites and land and sea based platforms. FCAS-SCAF is currently blocked, on the eve of the phase that should lead to the production of the prototype.

6G fighters must be large for a number of reasons. They need ample inner space to contain the missiles, because if these weapons were hung externally below the wings, they would make the aircraft lose its stealth characteristic of invisibility to radar; other space is needed to host the plane's electronic counter-defence measures; and large fuel tanks, with the aim of reducing dangerous in-flight refuelling. This is what Berlin is seeking, but Paris wants a lighter plane with nuclear capabilities so it can be embarked on an aircraft-carrier. Chancellor Merz states that, in light of these differing requirements, a divorce is possible, adding that others in Europe, besides Spain, are interested in discussing the matter.

Dassault and Rafale

The FCAS fighter is to be produced by Dassault Aviation and Airbus Defence and Space. The former has recently claimed its leadership of the project: according to its CEO Éric Trappier the group is the only one in Europe able to design the entire fighter.

The Financial Times recalls that in the 1980s Dassault abandoned the Eurofighter Typhoon project because it wanted leadership, and carried out the Rafale programme on its own. The French group claims this was an industrial success, with excellent export results. Dassault has inaugurated a new factory in Cergy and intends to raise its monthly production to five units, with plans to make a version with a 20% more powerful engine. However, a year ago, an IFRI report noted that the glaring weakness of the Rafale, when compared with the F-35 for example, is its lack of radar invisibility characteristics.

The London daily recalls a curious historical detail which explains a certain tri-colour patriotism. The French company was founded more than a century ago by the Parisian engineer Marcel Bloch. During the Second World War, Bloch, of a Jewish family, refused to collaborate with the Nazi occupiers and was sent to a concentration camp. After the liberation, he decided to change his name to Dassault, which derived from the nickname of his brother, Char-d'assault [tank], who, in turn, was a general in the Resistance. Marcel Dassault, who died in the mid-1980s, was also a Gaullist parliamentarian.

Airbus and two fighters

Michael Schoellhorn (the Airbus DS CEO) responded to Dassault's demands proposing that the FCAS architecture should remain as the framework for the combat cloud and drones, but serve two independently produced fighter jets. The German industrial association BDLI and the IG Metall trade union also agree with this proposal. Schoellhorn, speaking to the workers of the Manching Airbus plant, said: We do not accept that Airbus should become a mere supplier [...] and that our German partners such as Diehl, Autoflug, and Liebherr should be excluded from the project [Les Echos, March 6th]. Airbus DS's optimism also stems from its recent successes in securing orders for the EFA Typhoon fighter, produced with BAE Systems and Leonardo.

Tom Enders, Airbus's former CEO, and today the president of the German Council on Foreign Relations, begs to differ. He writes: Germany has not developed a fighter autonomously since the Second World War. To proceed now would mean very long times and huge costs [...] we would have a prestigious project which would absorb the defence budgets for years and would not bring anything to the air force; autonomous and highly intelligent drone systems are needed for future air warfare [Les Echos, February 26th]. It should be stressed that Enders is also a member of the board of directors of Helsing, the German drone manufacturer.

The uncertain times of the world order are multiplying the initiatives of European imperialism, but they raise new problems of balance. Jean Pisani-Ferry, an economist with the Bruegel think tank, writes [Le Monde, February 22nd]: Traditionally, the division of labour between France and Germany as regards military hardware followed a simple pattern: in short, France produced aircraft and Germany tanks. [...] This division of the tasks is now being called into question by the gradual strengthening of German defence.

Translated from the original work by , published in Lotta Comunista, , p. 19.

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