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The Blockade of Hormuz Intensifies Class Struggle in India

Less than a month after the US-Israeli attack on Iran, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the Lok Sabha, the lower house, evoking the precedent of the COVID-19 crisis and calling for national unity. For The Indian Express, this demonstrates the gravity of the situation.

The government has set up a ministerial committee, led by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, to monitor the impact of the war: it includes the ministers of Home Affairs, Finance, and Petroleum. Modi then summoned the chief ministers of the States to assess the situation and agree on mitigation measures: he called for cracking down on the black market and hoarding, and for ensuring that support reaches its intended recipients, particularly migrant workers.

From austerity measures due to the shortage of cooking gas to rising airfares, the war in the Middle East is exacerbating the deep contradictions of India's uneven development: according to The Indian Express, "internal adjustments" will be necessary, the costs of which will affect all social strata. Class struggle can only intensify. The Business Standard, a financial daily representing the elite of Indian conglomerates, is attempting to take advantage of workers' mobilisations with a view to accelerate reforms and reducing the influence of the petty bourgeoisie on Indian imperialism.

West Asia: the lifeline of the Subcontinent

The Indian economy, heavily dependent on hydrocarbon imports, has three major vulnerabilities: fuel, food, and fertilisers. India imports 88% of its oil, 60% of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and half of its natural gas; almost all of this passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Compounding this is the country's inadequate strategic reserves infrastructure: oil reserves could currently meet demand for around six days (excluding oil companies' reserves, which could meet demand for a further 60 days); LPG reserves are non-existent. One of the government's first measures was to prioritise gas supplies for domestic users. This has led to shortages and closures, either total or partial, in the catering sector as well as in small and medium-sized industries, many of which use LPG cylinders.

The Gulf region is also vital for fertilisers (30% of all urea and ammonia pass through Hormuz) and for foreign trade (16% of Indian exports). Around 9 million Indian migrants also work in this region. In Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, they make up more than a third of the population, largely employed in construction and the hospitality sector. Over one third of Indian remittances come from countries that are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Informal work in the large industrial groups

In recent months, wage protests have brought several industrial districts in northern and western India to a standstill. The rising cost of living is putting pressure on a manufacturing sector dominated by workers on precarious contracts. The Hormuz crisis has exacerbated the rise in LPG cylinder prices (some newspapers report costs have risen sixfold).

According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey 2025, only 16.5% of workers in the manufacturing sector have a written contract: this means that a significant proportion of employees are, in practice, employed informally. The Annual Survey of Industries, which covers the registered manufacturing sector, defines a contract worker as a person hired through a contractor or intermediary. The proportion of these workers has more than doubled over the last twenty years: from 20% in 2000-01 to 42% in 2023-24. This indicates a structural shift in employment practices even among large companies, which are increasingly relying on intermediaries to hire workers.

Contract workers are largely migrants living in precarious conditions. Rising prices have triggered an exodus to their regions of origin, similar to that seen during the lockdowns, but on a smaller scale. Nikkei Asia reports the case of Surat, the "Silk City" of Gujarat, where more than 250,000 workers out of a total of around 1 million have left since the beginning of March.

The third Gulf War is having immediate repercussions in India. It is triggering mass phenomena linked to recent urbanisation: wage pressures, workers' struggles, and migration on a continental Asian scale.

Translated from the original work by , published in Lotta Comunista, , p. 14.

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